Is Another RBA Rate Rise Coming?

The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% in August, after 75 basis points of hikes earlier in 2026. But with the next decision due 29 September, all four big banks now expect another rise before year's end — the only debate is timing.

Why a hike is back on the table

Annual inflation eased to 3.5% in July, but the RBA's preferred measure, trimmed mean inflation, held at 3.6% — well above the 2–3% target and hotter than expected. That, combined with a stronger-than-forecast GDP result and a bigger trade surplus, suggests the economy is running warmer than the RBA anticipated. Markets have responded fast: the probability of a September hike jumped from ~17% to ~80% in under two weeks.

What the banks are forecasting

• NAB: hike in September, to 4.60%

• CBA & ANZ: hike in November, to 4.60%

• Westpac: reversed its "no hike" call in early September, now also expects a rise

All four agree the next move is up — just not on when.

The case for waiting

• Earlier hikes may not have fully flowed through yet

• Households are already under cost-of-living pressure

• Some inflation drivers (like fuel prices) may be one-off, not structural

• Labour market and wage growth are softening

What it means for your mortgage

• A 0.25% rise adds about $91/month on a $600,000 loan

• Two rises (Sept + Nov) would add roughly $183/month

• Savings rates would likely rise too, but typically with a lag

What to watch

• 29 September, 2:30pm AEST – RBA decision

• 30 September – August inflation data (released the day after)

Barring a surprise, most economists see at least one more hike landing before the end of 2026.